Your Country Needs You!

IMG_0270In less than sixty hours from the time of this post, we should know the outcome of the November 6 midterm elections. I’ve never been able to figure out how to get paid for my incredibly deep insight [😊], but I’ll tell you in this post everything you need to know about November 6. That will save you the time and frustration involved in channel flipping and clicking through the myriad of predictions being offered 24/7 by “experts” in the media.  So just relax and enjoy life for the next sixty hours, realizing that the single most productive and constructive thing you, personally, can do — is VOTE. Here’s all you need to know about November 6:

  • It is the 310th day of 2018. In Washington, DC, the sun will rise at 6:41am and set at 5:02pm.
  • By about 11:00 to 12:00pm Eastern Time, possibly much sooner, one [and only one] of the following will be true come January*:
    1. Republicans Will Have Majorities In Both The House And The Senate.
    2. Republicans Will Have A Majority In The Senate But Not In The House.
    3. Republicans Will Have A Majority In The House But Not In The Senate.
    4. Democrats Will Have Majorities In Both The House And In The Senate.

I should point out that technical peculiarities in some states [e.g., Mississippi] could postpone full knowledge of the election outcome considerably — days, maybe even weeks. The more extremely close races there are, the higher the probability of delays in learning the final outcome.

Regardless of which of the above is true, millions of people will be happy about that outcome, millions will be unhappy about it, millions won’t care what it was, and millions won’t even know what it was — and Republican Donald Trump will still be President.

Predictions Of The “Experts”

Most of the better-known “experts” say that Democrats will probably gain a majority in the House, and that doing so in the Senate is at least a possibility albeit less likely. However, most of these same “experts” were predicting a Clinton landslide in 2016 right up to election day. History also presents that projection. Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm.

The Way I See It, Their Opinions Don’t Matter Any More

For two reasons, I believe neither of these indicators matters in this election. First, President Trump has from his candidacy announcement to now ignored precedence and “upset the apple cart.” Election “history” simply doesn’t matter as much as it has in the past. Second, Democrats have seriously “shot themselves in the foot” for two years — they have only two “planks” in their “platform:” 1) vigorously oppose whatever Trump is for; and 2) team with an eagerly supportive mainstream media to constantly accentuate all negatives and hide all positives about Trump [personally, and wherever possible without embarrassing themselves, his administration.] On top of that, the way they conducted themselves in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings was over-the-top despicable.

Early voting turnout indicates that total turnout in this mid-term may surpass that in all previous mid-terms, even rivaling if not exceeding turnout in the 2016 Presidential election. Again, the “experts” say high turnout favors Democrats. My take: the effect of high turnout on November 6 cannot be accurately predicted. The reason is simple — we will not know until well after November 6 WHO actually turned out to make that number so high. If it’s mostly young people, Independents and women [of all ages and races,] I’d venture to say that the outcome is a toss-up — because those voters do not think in terms of parties, “bases,” etc., and their rationale in making voting decisions is entirely different from that of the various constituencies that tend to vote as blocs. Also, if women account for a disproportionate percentage of the people generating the high turnout numbers, traditional ways of using that information to make projections are questionable because women are not as bloc-vote oriented as many “experts” think they are.

Which Of The Four Possible Outcomes Would Be Best?

In descending order of desirability in my humble opinion [same as order listed above:]

#1 — Republicans Will Have Majorities In Both The House And The Senate. I believe Republicans have become more unified and can get more done. Let the majority elected in 2016 continue — success or failure will be better determinable in 2020. If the people’s assessment is success, 2020 might even increase Republican majorities and cause the President’s re-election; if it’s failure, a much greater shift in the Legislature would be possible, and the President’s re-election would be considerably less probable unless Democrats make the same mistake in 2020 they made in in 2016 [nominate a standard, traditional politician.]

#2 — Republicans Will Have A Majority In The Senate But Not In The House. Gridlock might worsen some, but if the Democrat majority in the House results in more by-partisan bills from that chamber [which I think might be the case,] the Senate might be more likely to reach bipartisan agreement on more merged House-Senate bills that the President would not veto.  Also, if another Supreme Court vacancy occurs, the court would continue its shift toward constitutional adherence.

#3 — Republicans Will Have A Majority In The House But Not In The Senate. Similar to #2 in terms of legislation, but if another Supreme Court vacancy occurs, the court would shift back to more “legislating from the bench.”

#4 — Democrats Will Have Majorities In Both The House And In The Senate. What happens here would depend entirely on whether the Democrat majorities in both chambers could be reasonably successful in reaching bipartisan agreement on merged House-Senate bills that the President would not veto. If they stay on their current “avoid anything that might be viewed as a Trump success” tactic, that is unlikely. Also, investigations into anything and everything will consume way too much time. My prediction: worsening deadlock as Democrats just mark time until 2020 when they will assume there will be a massive shift back to a Democrat in the White House and even wider Democrat majorities in both Legislative chambers.

Don’t Forget The Paradigm Shift

These mid-term elections might very well be the most significant evidence so far of the Major Paradigm Shift Well Underway that I’ve been writing about for two years — particularly if the high turnout numbers cause the “experts” to be wrong [again — as they were in 2016.] I’ll plan to do some post-election blogging about that angle.

Anyway, whether you agree with my assessment of where we are and how these outcomes will play out or not, please VOTE on or before November 6! YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU. And remember, if you don’t vote at all, you could be unwittingly voting for some candidates that you would NOT vote for if you did vote!! [I wrote extensively about why that is so in the weeks leading up to the 2016 elections.]

Thanks for reading this post, and if you regularly follow my Blog, for that, too. Please consider sharing this or other posts with your friends, colleagues and associates.

img_7026 Charles M Jones

Charles M. Jones

Author: Charles M. Jones, PE, CPA

[retired — neither license active]

One thought on “Your Country Needs You!”

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